Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8 Unemployment Rate
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-williams-on-lies-damned-lies-and-the-78-unemployment-rate-2012-10 Due 15 October 2012. Comment on the author's interpretation of the unemployment rate. Make sure you also comment on the second blog post.
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John Williams believes that September's unemployment rate is misleading and skewed. He stated that unemployment rates of previous months are always recalculated, with seasonal factors included, but these new numbers do not get posted. So, the 0.3% drop is most likely inaccurate, according to Williams. He then states that the unemployment rate may have been manipulated, because the election is soon. Overall, he believes that these statistics are skewed, and don't portray the actual unemployment rate.
ReplyDeleteThe author's interpretation of the unemployment is the rates are believed to be fake. He believes there may have been a significant change in calculation of the rate. He also believes in the possibility of manipulation. The manipulation will influence the public. In addition, he also mentions how there has been manipulation of the data since Johnson's presidency however, the Obama administration has been a clean administration.
ReplyDeleteWilliams claims the unemployment rates are inaccurate and in some way not authentic. He claims that manipulation is a possibility, and that it will have an impact on the public. He states that while the Obama administration has been "clean", the skewed statistics may be due to the upcoming election. The main point John Williams tries to get across is to be wary of the 0.3% drop and to bear in mind they are probably skewed.
ReplyDeleteIn the article John Williams says that the unemployment rate of September is wrong and misleading. He says that the unemployment rate for months previous were changed and recalculated due to seasonal change and natural factors and the new numbers were always posted after the recalculation. He also goes on to say that the unemployment rate may have been skewed because the election is coming up.
ReplyDeleteJohn Williams’s interpretation of the unemployment rate is that it was skewed and ambiguous. He states that the statistics could have been tampered with due to the fact that there “is no transparency in the calculation and reporting process.” So, he infers that this was due to the impact it would have on the nation’s citizens because of the upcoming election. Williams also says that since the unemployment rates for each month are calculated with different factors and are never posted, we should be skeptical of the .3% drop, because it’s most likely false. All in all, John Williams believes the unemployment numbers are misleading and don’t truly portray the nations employment status.
ReplyDeleteJohn Williams interprets the information that determines how the BLS calculates unemployment rate and puts it in more laymen terms in this article. His assumption is that due to the lack of transparency in the calculation and reporting process, it very well could have been manipulated. Williams does believe that the numbers are misleading and inaccurate because of this. He does bring up that the manipulation of data could be a result of the upcoming presidential election even though the Obama administration has been clean.
ReplyDeleteWilliam's points out that the the unemployment rate is misreported and is unreliable due to "seasonal" adjustment factors. These factors, he claims, cause the employment rate to be recalculated each month due to different variables. William's makes the bold assertion that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has actual, consistent numbers, however the BLS is hesitant on releasing said numbers out of fear of causing confusion in the general public. He also claims that, due to lack of transparency in the calculation process, there is room for manipulation of numbers. He also points out what Krugman did, the two different surveys employed to sample employment rates. In all, Williams interprets this unemployment rate as misleading due to manipulation of numbers and the variability of the BLS's standards of calculation.
ReplyDeleteWalter J. Williams believes the unemployment rate and statistical data being released from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) has been tampered with and is unreliable due to factors that change on a month to month basis. Every month, concurrent seasonal factors tied to the school year, holiday shopping season, or whatever is considered relevant at the moment are factored in. The clear numbers are not released by the BLS due to fear of the general public's reaction. The unreleased data also leaves room for manipulation. Although the Obama administration appears to be 'clean' (no evidence can prove otherwise and the statement is from what William has seen), William disagrees with the BLS' current method of releasing information and calls out for truthful statistics, especially now since the presidential election is around the corner.
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ReplyDeleteWilliams believes BLS has skewed numbers for political reasons with the election approaching. He believes the seasonal adjustments were too drastic on the recalculation for September. He argues that BLS should release all information regardless of "viewer confusion." He also feels the Obama administration has been "clean" and has not cheated during his presidency.
The author of this article, Williams believes that the statistic of 7.8% unemployment in America is not accurate due to many factors. The statistic was released by the BLS(Bureau of Labor Statistics) and he believes that the BLS tampered with the statistic because of the reaction of the American people and if they were to see the real statistic then it would strike fear in many Americans. He feels that the BLS should release the true information so it does not cause any problems or confusion.
ReplyDeleteJohn Williams interprets the 7.8% percent unemployment rate as an inaccurate number because of the constantly changing factors the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses determine there numbers. Since the BLS uses different factors to gather their numbers for monthly job reports, according to Williams, it creates an inconsistent report, making the percentages meaningless from month to month. He believes that if the BLS would show the real, un-adjusted numbers, that we would a more accurate job report number, instead of the current "inaccurate" 7.8%.
ReplyDeleteJohn Williams interpretation on the 7.8% unemployment rate is that the percentage is inaccurate due to serious misreporting of numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is not consistent with their numbers when doing their calculations. In fact, they do know the real number but they put out meaningless numbers month to month to not confuse data users.
ReplyDeleteJohn Williams states that the unemployment rate is wrong and therefore not reliable because of "seasonal" factors. These adjustment factors according to him, are the cause of the change in the rate each month. This is due to various other factors. Williams claims that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reliable numbers. But the BLS doesn't want to show those numbers because they are afraid of public confusion. Williams also says that numbers can be easily manipulated. Lastly, he notes the surveys by Krugman to show the employment rates. In conclusion, Williams says that the rate of unemployment is misleading. This is because of the manipulation and the calculations done by the BLS.
ReplyDeleteWilliams proclaims that the recent statistics from this months unemployment calculation are skewed and used to benefit the Obama administration just on the brink before the election. He says that the numbers are somewhat manipulated albeit the administration is clean, incomparable to that of former president Johnson's administration. Overall, he says that these false reports are being used to benefit Obama just before the election.
ReplyDeleteWilliams believes the 7.8% number for the unemployment rate is misleading and possibly false. He says every month, the numbers are recalculated to adjust for certain circumstances and the only way to know if the rate has been a significant change is by looking the previous months recalculated data. He believes there may have been something suspicious going on since the elections are very close coming.
ReplyDeleteJohn Williams believes that September's unemployment rate is misleading and uninformative. This is because the seasonal adjustments can greatly affect the statistics. The BLS does not report their means of recalculation or the adjusted previous month rate so there is nothing to base it on. Also, he believes, even though the Oboma Administration has been clean, there might have been slight tampering in September's rates as this will affect the public, especially in the upcoming election.
ReplyDeleteJohn Williams believes the 7.8 unemployment rate is misleading and that the BLS knows what the real number is but chooses not to publish it. The BLS states they do not publish the numbers consisted of August and September because they do not want to confuse data users. But John Williams states that the month-to-month numbers calculated through seasonal adjustments re-calculate everything rather than publishing a number consistent to the prior moth's estimate.
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