Friday, December 16, 2011
This Slump Won't End Until 2031
Due 2 Jan 2012. Why does Mathew Lyons predict 2031 as an end to this recession?? What economic indicators is he using as a basis for his analysis? What are your own predictions?
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One of the greatest crashes of all time was the Long Depression from 1873 to 1896. It started in Europe. Because of the communication brought by telegraph, the Long Depression was spread to New York later. Mathew Lyons predicts the end of our recession based on this specific crash, which lasted for 23 years, since our recession started in 2008. A quote from the article can clearly show the reasoning for his prediction. "This depression is structural. The Long Depression of the 19th century had its roots in financial speculation, technological change, and the arrival of a massive new player in the global economy. Our current depression likewise has its roots in three huge crises coming together at the same time." Although our economy starts doing better and recovering slowly, it still requires time to get out of the recession. We are more technological advanced and more experienced than we were in 19th century, so I think(or hope) we could get out of this recession some time before 2031.
ReplyDeleteLyons predicts the end of the recession will be in 2031 because of the Long Depression in Europe that lasted from 1873 to 1896. Lyons tells how the Long Depression in Europe is very similar to the depression America and the world has gone through. The economic indicators he uses is the historical evidence that occurred in Europe and the evidence America has made of going into a crisis. Lyons says that there are 5 key lessons to learn. 1. Depressions can last a very long time. 2. The depression is structural. 3. It’s uneven. 4. Good things are still happening. 5. It won’t be fixed easily. I agree with Xiaowen that number 2 is very important in regards to predicting our economy’s future. I did see today that our economy in the year 2011 was stable. There was no decrease or increase in the economy in 2011. This proves number 5 of the key lessons. As of right now, I am hoping it does not take 23 years for our economy to get on track again but with this article and the economic stability of 2011, it make in fact take 2 decades for our country and the world to get the economy in order again.
ReplyDeleteLyons predicts this because of all the factors contributing to our "depression". Some factors mentioned in the article for example is that a depression last a long time to recover from, also changes in technology which has effect on the currency causing deflation. Lyons believes that the many factors that caused us to go into the depression, will take us longer to get out of the factors. He believes that the depression will even last longer than the Great Depression. I believe that the depression will take us a long time to get out of, like Lyons said. The fact that our economy is almost like a roller coaster slowly going up and then a factor comes in that makes us drop back down. I think that the depression may even continue pass 2031.
ReplyDeleteLyons predicts 2031 as the end of this recession because our situation is very similar to the Long Depression that occurred in Europe in the 19th century. The economic indicators that he uses in his argument are that "depressions can last a very long time, this depression is structural, it's uneven, good things are still happening, and it won't be fixed easily." Depressions are very serious and rebuilding our massive economy will take patience. Lyons does not see putting an emphasis on demand in our economy as the easy way out of this poor economic time. I think that Lyons in right in his analysis of our current economic situation. It will definitely be a long road to financial stability and prosperity in the United States. I truly hope that this problem gets solved before 2031, as Xiaowen pointed out, for the well-being of our current generation and future generations.
ReplyDeleteMatthew Lyons makes a bold prediction that the recession will end in 2031. He basis his prediction on the Long Depression that occurred between the years of 1873 and 1896. The conditions were similar in that time period therefore he could make a semi-knowledgeable prediction. He discusses the depression being uneven and structural which are specific indicators. My predictions are in some way similar to Lyons. Obviously, it would be great for the recession to be over as soon as possible. But realistically, it will take time to build our economy and to ensure stability.
ReplyDeleteLyons' based his prediction off of a previously-researched situation that if similar to ours. This "Long Depression" occurred in Vienna in 1873 and dragged along for 23 years. Therefore, he relates the two occurrences to predict our recession will last until 2031, seeing as it began in 2008. The "prolonged period of volatility, unemployment, and slumps" sums up the many indicators that allowed him to compare our situations. More specifically, Lyons focuses on the "debt bubble" and the continuous decrease of the dollar as a reserve currency. Although I cannot map out a complete timeline of what will be of our economy, I can say that I agree with Lyons that our recovery will take a large chunk of time.
ReplyDeleteLyons makes this prediction based off of the Long Depression, which was a situation very similar to the one we are dealing with right now. It occured in Europe from 1873-1896. He addresses many factors of the depression, such as deflation. He also predicts that it will take us longer to get out of this economic condition than it did the Great Depression, which is very frightning to me. I personally agree with Lyons's prediction that it will take some time for the recession to end simply because the state of our economy is worse than it has been in many, many years.
ReplyDeleteMathew Lyons predicts 2031 as an end to this recession because of the similarities between the Long Depression that lasted from 1873 to 1896. He talks about how long it has lasted, how it is structual and uneven. Also, he says how the two depressions have had its roots in other crises. I dont know how long it's going to take for this recession to end but i think that the way it has been going it is possible that it would last that long.
ReplyDeleteLyon based his claim the our reccession would end in 2031 off of a previous depression that occurre in 1873 and lasted up to 1896. This previous depression supposedly was similar to our current recession and as a result is a valid example to look towards. Indicators that were mentioned include financial speculation, technological change, and the arrival of a massive new player in the global economy. I believe that the reccesssion will end sooner than Lyon predicts because we are actively creating economical changes as citizens of the U.S.
ReplyDeleteMathew Lyons predicts an end to the recession in 2031 based on the Long Depression that occured in Europe from 1873 to 1896. Changes in technology and this being structural are some economic indicators used. I predict the economy to get better by 2031 but we will not be out of the recessiuon by that time.
ReplyDeleteWow, I think nobody actually read this article... I find it difficult to believe EVERYBODY misread the article the exact same way... wow.
ReplyDeleteMATTHEW (with two T's) LYNN (not Lyon) bases claims off of economic indicators from the Long Depression, which (more or less) paralell today's economic situation. However, 2031 is just a number that's thrown out there based on the Long Depression, and used as a clever title, not a serious estimate. However, if anyone ACTUALLY READ the article, Lynn never says he truly believes this economic slump will last as long as its' historical paralell.
"We won’t replay the Long Depression of 1873 to 1896 exactly, nor will this slump necessarily last as long." -MATTHEW LYNN
It's all going to depend on whether or not we can create AND sustain economic growth.
So, I believe that the economic slump will end much sooner than 2031, so long as we can sustain some sort of economic growth.